Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future Start Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC) : Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors. “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven']][[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|'09876']] 20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC) Here are my Atlantic basin predictions: 8''' tropical depressions, '''7 named storms, 3''' hurricanes, '''1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). AndrewTalk To Me 01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 'hurricanes, and '''0-2 '''major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season. Steve820 21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops 3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC) Not sure this is bad or not.--Isaac829 23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC) :They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC) :I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC) The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :) Steve820 20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :15 more days! Steve820 20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC) :Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling. :Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC) ::As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does '''not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something. Steve820 21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::4 days left... Steve820 23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC) :::3 more days! Steve820 00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::2 days left!! :D Steve820 22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC) :::less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1''' major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang! Steve820 03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC) The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!--Isaac829 04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC) Re-analysis Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. ''Ryan1000'' 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) :Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :::Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. ''Ryan1000'' 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC) July AOI: Tropical Wave (July 28) AOI: Over Ivory Coast This is the second of a train of four waves. Convective imagery indicates it is moderately strong with some mid-level rotation. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Tropical Wave (July 28) If this is the correct wave, it has just emerged off of Africa yesterday and is currently located near Cape Verde. I believe we might see some gradual development in the long run. --Steve820 16:45, July 29, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Nigeria AOI: Over Nigeria This is the third of a train of four waves. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Sudan AOI: Over Sudan This is the caboose of a train of four waves. It is a very strong system, and low to mid-level rotation is evident. We might see our third tropical cyclone from this. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) :Isn't this a bit...early?--Isaac829 04:09, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I don't know! What do you think? :P AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :::I know, it's a bit too early for this :P --Steve820 22:28, July 26, 2014 (UTC) August Starting this a tad bit early, but say hi to August in the Atlantic! I hope we see a slight explosion of activity this month and let's hope we won't see an August that would be similar to 2013. I predict '''4 tropical storms to form this month, 2''' hurricanes, and '''1 major hurricane. Let's make it an epic month! Also my birthday is coming this month too and I can't wait! =D --Steve820 19:39, July 31, 2014 (UTC) : Anyone else have predictions for this month? :) --Steve820 20:00, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::You couldn't wait another four hours? :P Anyway, I doubt that explosion you foresee is going to happen. Dry air is quite a bad problem. I predict 3''' depressions, '''2 storms, and 1''' non-major hurricane forming. Our ACE should be around '''10 units, give or take five. AndrewTalk To Me 20:16, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::I call for 3 storms and 1 hurricane, maybe or maybe not a major. And Bertha counts, it technically formed in August, even though we were talking about her precursor in July. :P Ryan1000 11:39, August 1, 2014 (UTC) 03L.BERTHA AoI: Emerging from Africa Based on Jeff Master's latest blog post, there are a train of four waves over Africa. This is the first wave, and it is just exiting Africa. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 24) 0/20. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 09:54, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :We could defintely see a little development from this AOI, but I would not expect even a tropical depression for at least another week or so. AndrewTalk To Me 17:19, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :::Dry air is still pretty prominent over much of the North Atlantic, if those conditions remain over the next week or two, this one will probably go into the EPac and develop there. Ryan1000 19:56, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::This might be a named storm in the long run but I personally don't think that'll happen due to all the dry air scattered across the Atlantic. But it still has a chance IMO. --Steve820 22:29, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Not bad...0/40, expected to become better organized in the Central Atlantic later this week. Bertha maybe? Ryan1000 05:52, July 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Shower activity is real disorganized in the AOI, but we could see some gradual development over the next few days as it moves westwards. I am calling for a tropical depression at most right now. AndrewTalk To Me 12:15, July 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I expect a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane from this.Allanjeffs 14:09, July 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::I also predict a hurricane. Hopefully future-Bertha becomes a hurricane! --Steve820 16:55, July 27, 2014 (UTC) 93L.INVEST 30% now and 70% for the next five days, expect Bertha to form from this and might be a hurricane as it approach the leewards. The central Atlantic might finally get into gear as conditions are becoming more favorable.Allanjeffs 05:42, July 28, 2014 (UTC) :Ugh, I hate this format. Fixed the header again...anyways, the long-term model forecasts on this invest are pretty interesting, some show a strong hurricane nearing the lower Lesser Antilles, others take it northward towards the Virgin Islands and PR, then heading towards the eastern U.S. or Bermuda. The 1996 and 2008 Berthas were early July Cape Verde major hurricanes, this one looks like it'll be an early August one, though hopefully less powerful. Ryan1000 10:09, July 28, 2014 (UTC) ::It's still 30/70, the 5-day outlook takes it screaming towards the Windwards in the long run. It has a good chance to be a hurricane IMO and hopefully it won't be destructive in the long run... I have some bad feelings about this D: --Steve820 18:07, July 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::I think the majority of the models have now agreed that Bertha to-be will end up near or right into the northern Lesser Antilles in a week or so. After that, if it continues to strengthen to a major or so, it'll likely get recurved out to sea. As of right now, the Virgin Islands and PR are the most likely areas to be affected by this storm. Ryan1000 22:04, July 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::Shower activity has become better organized in Invest 93L, and it is poised to develop even more in the next few days. Chances of formation are now at 50% for the next two days and 70% for the next five. It'll be interesting to see what this storm does. I hope we see a non-impacting weak hurricane out of this. AndrewTalk To Me 02:40, July 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::Models are becoming aggresive with this I believe it will be a td by tomorrow morning. Models are showing from a strong ts to a upper cat 1. The leewards might get affect from this so this might not be a fish. Allanjeffs 03:05, July 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::70/80! Bertha is soon to be here. I'm gonna do what I always do, that is hyping up new storms. I think Bertha could easily become a MH similar to Bertha 96 or Bill. Models are suggesting Bertha getting caught with the westerlies at different time and places, which could be the difference between a disaster and high waves. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:10, July 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Here comes Bertha! I got a feeling that it might be something destructive in the long run, but let's hope it won't be. Like Andrew, I hope we see a non-impacting hurricane from this. --Steve820 16:42, July 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::It's at 70% (48 hours and 5 days). Showers and t-storms are limited but it's still well organized, and I root for Bertha! --Steve820 00:16, July 30, 2014 (UTC) :::Eh, looks like 93L slipped a little, now it's lost some of its deep convection and is down to 50% for the next 2 and 5 days. Now it'll probably head further south than earlier anticipated, and go deeper into the Caribbean. It could still become Bertha, but conditions won't favor it for long. Ryan1000 21:25, July 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::Actually, SST's are currently at 28C and most of the dry air is to the north of 93L, per Jeff Master's blog post; it also has a well-defined surface circulation. It's the excess wind shear of 20+ knots that's preventing its development. Even the shear should diminish tonight, and the moist environment around the invest could result in a TD as soon as tonight. Much of the models are torn on the speed of 93L. UKMO and Euro take the system over Puerto Rico by Saturday evening, while GFS steers it more northeastwards at a slower pace. Due to the dry air ahead of it, 93L is going to struggle a little to intensify. At most, I call for a re-Chantal (2013) or re-Emily (2011), given the fact GFDL and HWRF, which did great with predicting Arthur, fail to foresee a hurricane from the invest. Regardless, the northern Lesser Antilles could really use some rain right now; they have experienced an extremely dry June. AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, July 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::In one of Dr. Master's latest blog posts, it was stated that the lesser antilles had their driest June on record since record keeping began sometime in the 1800's, so I can agree that it would be nice for them to get some rain out of this thing, but it probably won't be very strong when it does so. The models are pretty adamant about the track of the storm, taking it into the virgin islands and PR in a few days, then dissipating it north of the Bahamas (or recurving it out to sea by a trough). Ryan1000 22:37, July 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::If it develops it'll probably only be weak TS. The Lesser Antilles might get some rain from this but it probably wouldn't be anything severe, and this rain will be very beneficial to them due to their extremely dry June. --Steve820 01:27, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Invest 93L has changed very little in organization. With dry air slated to increase as it moves westwards, it is looking doubtful we are going to see a hurricane now. Chances remain at 50% for the next two and days, although quite frankly, I would be fine with the invest just dying - I am sick of fail TSs, especially after last year. AndrewTalk To Me 02:09, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Ascat show that this system already have winds of tropical storm force. The NHC could upgrade it at 5am or 11am if it mantain the convection is developing.They would probably upgrade it to a td though and wait until recon goes. Allanjeffs 03:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Hurricane Hunters are beginning to investigate Invest 93L, 550 miles east of the Windward Islands. SST's are very conductive, a well-organized surface circulation is present, and plenty of heavy thunderstorms are around the system. What's stopping this is the dry air to its north and west. Also, Allan, the recon flight has only found winds of near gale-force. Additionally, shear of 10 to 20 knots may slow 93L's development as it tracks westwards. Most models predict westward movement towards the Lesser Antilles, with arrival near Puerto Rico expected on Saturday morning. Unfortunately, if 93L does develop, it may not get extremely strong. GFS, UKMO, and the Euro models fail to forsee the system exceeding 35 knots, while HWRF, GFDL, LGEM, and DSHIPS predict a peak of ~35 to 45 knots. At most, I see something along the lines of a re-Emily (2011), as GFS also predicts a more northward motion towards the United States. Additionally, the NHC has reported shower activity in 93L has actually decreased overnight, but that could easily change in the next several hours. Nevertheless, chances of formation are now at 70% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 19:26, July 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::I think we'll see Bertha out of this by later today or tonight, but I predict only a weak TS that would be along the lines of Chantal (2013) or Emily (2011). Hopefully it forms into something, even though it'll be weak! I've been waiting for Bertha for a while! --Steve820 19:39, July 31, 2014 (UTC) (←)The Air Force flight found winds of 40 to 45 mph (35 to 40 knots) in the northern and eastern quadrants of Invest 93L. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing east of the center, and at this rate, a tropical storm could be up in as soon as half a hour. Gale-force winds are to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles tonight and Saturday, prompting possible TS watches and warnings if development does occur. Chances of formation are now at 80% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 02:29, August 1, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bertha Whoop whoop.--Isaac829 03:01, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :I knew the NHC was going to classify 93L at 0300Z! Now Tropical Storm Bertha, winds are currently at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). TS warnings are up for Barbados, St. Lucia, and Dominica. TS watches are up for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Bertha is expected to pass by Barbados tomorrow afternoon (local time) and the central Lesser Antilles tomorrow evening. Gale-force winds extend 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands could see one to three, possibly five, inches of rain through Saturday evening. Gale-force winds should reach the warning areas tomorrow afternoon. Stay safe, Caribbean! AndrewTalk To Me 03:10, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :She is the ugliest ts ever but I knew she was coming. I was rooting for her. Anyways this is for all the ones that call her dead. She had ts winds since the time I talk about Ascat today the NHC confimr that and + that is close to the islands.Allanjeffs 03:16, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::The spiral band that prompted the NHC upgrade has only existed for 3, maybe 4 hours. Doesn't convection have to persist in order to warrant classification as a tropical cyclone? I think the NHC got a little overeager here. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:23, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::The requirement is 6, I believe they thought that piece of convection would survive for more hours as they are in Dmax in that part of the world.Allanjeffs 05:18, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::Eh, not necessarily going to be a fail, this could cause some flooding in parts of the uper Lessers before heading north of the Bahamas, then east out to sea. At least it's not like, say Lorenzo of last year (I forgot he existed in the retirements section lol). Ryan1000 11:37, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Bertha is really sheared; all the convection is displaced to its east. With limited outflow, the storm's intensity has been maintained. Another Air Force flight will investigate the system this afternoon. TS warnings are now up for Martinique. Due to the shear conditions, Bertha should not intensify much further for now, but once it clears Hispaniola in a couple of days and shear subsides, it could get a little stronger. For now, the NHC fails to take the system's winds beyond 45 knots (50 mph) for the next five days. The Atlantic STR is careening Bertha WNW for now, but once it hits the Bahamas, a subtropical high and mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. will cause a more northward motion. Puerto Rico has issued a local statement for the island, anticipating rainfall of one to three, maybe up to six inches. The Virgin Islands and Leewards also are expecting some modest rainfall. Gale-force winds should arrive in the Leewards this afternoon; any preparations should be stressed to get done ASAP! AndrewTalk To Me 13:26, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::So this means granny Bertha can't be a re Arthur? Come on, the aardvark is getting lonely! :( “i liek turtlez 14:05, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::At least not for the next few days, sorry Liz. :( AndrewTalk To Me 14:29, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Satellite images do show a well-defined exposed LLCC to the west of the main convection, but the Air Force data shows Bertha looks more like an open wave right now. Due to 56 knot winds being reported ENE of the center, however, the storm's winds have been raised to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h). For the next 48 hours, the Atlantic STR should continue to steer Bertha WNW into a break in the deep-layer trough over the Eastern U.S, causing a recurving movement thereafter. With 15 to 20 knots of shear and dry mid to upper-level air around Bertha, and the storm's lack of organization, it should fail to intensify for the next few days as it moves over the Antilles. From here, there are two plausible scenarios. A.) Bertha degenerates due to land interaction and regenerates north of Hispaniola a la Emily (2011), or B.) It moves into a region of less shear and dry air and reaches a forecast peak of 50 knots (60 mph), like the NHC expects. As a side note, all TS warnings have been cancelled for the Barbados region and a new TS watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic coast between Cabo Frances Viejo and Isla Saona. AndrewTalk To Me 15:21, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::I hope it won't be so bad of a storm for the Windwards and the Lesser Antilles. They could feel some weak impacts from Bertha but probably not too severe. In fact it looks kinda like an open wave at this moment especially with the high pressure of 1007 mb. --Steve820 20:47, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::She is becoming better organized as agaist all odds convection is developing near her center. Models now show her becoming a hurricane as it recurves. Allanjeffs 20:54, August 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Bertha actually might be a good thing for the upper Lesser Antilles as parts of Puerto Rico and the VI are in severe drought, if not the worst drought they've ever been in, so the rainfall from Bertha will actually be quite welcoming as a drought buster. It won't be a hurricane when it hits them, but Bertha could become a cat one later on as it eventually recurves out to sea. Ryan1000 22:18, August 1, 2014 (UTC) (←)Bertha's pressure has been lowered to 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg) based on Air Force and Martinique surface observation data. Also, Allan, convection is developing to the east of the storm's center as well, despite a small region of westerly winds. Bertha is still being steered WNW over the Caribbean by the flow of the STR for another couple of days, followed by recurvature into the westerlies and then a northeasterly motion into the Northern Atlantic. Fifteen knots of southwesterly VWS, along with abundant dry air as shown on microwave imagery, are still affecting Bertha quite significantly. While intensification may be delayed for another couple of days, after it clears the Bahamas, more favorable conditions should prompt some strengthening, with the latest NHC forecast bringing Bertha to 60 knots (70 mph). I will also note that HWRF brings the storm to roughly 80 knots (90 mph) in the next few days, just shy of C2 intensity. A TS watch is now in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Much of the Leewards are experiencing gale-force winds, which should spread to Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Southern Puerto Rico could now experience up to 10 inches of rainfall, which may benefit the ongoing drought conditions. I certainly hope we see more good than bad from Bertha. AndrewTalk To Me 23:20, August 1, 2014 (UTC)